Oil prices experienced a slight increase on Monday as investors assessed the potential impact of political turmoil in OPEC member Venezuela on shipments, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s actions against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, all within a well-supplied market context. Brent crude futures increased by 17 cents, reaching $60.92 a barrel by 0024, recovering from earlier declines. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $57.43 a barrel, reflecting an uptick of 11 cents. The United States successfully extracted Maduro from Caracas over the weekend. Trump asserted that Washington would assume control over the oil-producing nation, emphasizing that the U.S. embargo on all Venezuelan oil remained fully in effect.
The recent U.S. strike aimed at the Venezuelan president reportedly left the nation’s oil production and refining sector unscathed, according to sources. In a global market characterized by an abundant oil supply, analysts indicated that any additional disruption to Venezuela’s exports would likely have minimal immediate effect on prices. Daan Struyven noted in a January 4 report that there are ambiguous yet modest risks to oil prices in the short run stemming from Venezuela, contingent on the evolution of U.S. sanctions policy, while maintaining their 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged.
Helima Croft stated “Certainly, we think full sanctions relief could unlock several hundred kb/d of production over a 12-month period in an orderly transition situation.” However, all bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario akin to what occurred in Libya or Iraq,” she added. A senior official from Venezuela announced on Sunday that the government would remain cohesive in its support for Maduro. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, collectively referred to as OPEC+, made the decision to maintain their output on Sunday.
Analysts are closely monitoring Iran’s response following Trump’s threat on Friday to intervene in a crackdown on protests within the OPEC producer, thereby escalating geopolitical tensions. According to rights groups, at least 16 individuals have lost their lives amid a week of unrest in Iran, as demonstrations against escalating inflation have proliferated throughout the nation.