Oil prices experienced an uptick during early Asian trading on Monday, following OPEC+’s decision to refrain from increasing production in the first quarter of the upcoming year, thereby alleviating concerns regarding a potential supply surplus. Brent crude futures increased by 47 cents, or 0.73 percent, reaching $65.24 per barrel by 2336, following a 7-cent rise on Friday’s close. US West Texas Intermediate crude was priced at $61.43 a barrel, reflecting an increase of 45 cents, or 0.74 percent, following a prior session that concluded with a rise of 41 cents. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, reached a consensus on Sunday to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, maintaining the same level as in October and November. The group stated, “Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026.”

Analyst Helima Croft noted that there is significant justification for adopting a cautious stance, considering the uncertainty surrounding the Q1 supply outlook and the expected weakness in demand. She noted that Russia continues to be a significant supply variable following the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, alongside the persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday targeted the Tuapse port, a key oil port for Russia in the Black Sea, resulting in a fire and damage to at least one vessel.

Brent and WTI experienced a decline exceeding 2 percent for the third consecutive month in October, reaching a five-month low on October 20 due to apprehensions regarding a potential supply surplus and economic uncertainties related to US tariffs. Analysts are maintaining their oil price forecasts, as increasing OPEC+ production and subdued demand counterbalance geopolitical supply risks, according to a poll. Estimates of the surplus in the oil market varied between 0.19 and 3 million barrels per day.

The Energy Information Administration reported on Friday that US crude oil output increased by 86,000 barrels per day, reaching a record high of 13.8 million barrels per day in August. On Friday, President Donald Trump refuted claims that he was contemplating military strikes within Venezuela, as anticipation grows regarding the potential expansion of U.S. operations related to drug trafficking.