Oil prices experienced a decline on Friday; however, they are poised for a weekly increase. This situation arises from the interplay of anticipated lower demand in the United States, the largest consumer of oil globally, as the summer demand season concludes, alongside the prevailing uncertainty regarding the availability of Russian supply. Brent crude futures for October delivery, set to expire on Friday, experienced a decline of 50 cents, or 0.7%, settling at $68.12 at 0126 GMT. Meanwhile, the more actively traded November contract decreased by 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $67.52. Crude futures for West Texas Intermediate experienced a decline of 45 cents, representing a decrease of 0.7%, settling at $64.15. Both benchmarks experienced an upward movement on Thursday. Brent is poised to achieve a weekly increase of 0.6%, whereas WTI is anticipated to rise by 0.8%.

Prices experienced an uptick earlier in the week following Ukrainian assaults on Russian oil export terminals. However, they subsequently declined significantly as the market anticipated the conclusion of the U.S. summer driving demand period, coinciding with the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Additionally, increased supply from major producers, resulting from the cessation of voluntary output cuts, contributed to this downward trend. “Concerns that U.S. fuel demand will ease as the driving season ends after the Labour Day holiday weighed on the market,” stated Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities. “Still, uncertainty lingers over whether the U.S. and Europe may tighten sanctions against Russia following its attack on Ukraine, and over the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on India, making investors reluctant to take large positions,” he said.

In light of the Ukrainian assaults on Sunday targeting Russia’s Ust-Luga terminal, which serves as the primary export hub on the Baltic Sea for Urals crude, it has been reported that operations will be reduced by approximately 50% in September, bringing production down to around 350,000 barrels per day, according to sources on Thursday. The recent Russian assaults on Kyiv, resulting in the tragic loss of 23 lives, have heightened apprehensions regarding a potential U.S. response in the form of more stringent sanctions.

Market participants are closely monitoring India’s reaction to the U.S. demand to cease its purchases of Russian oil, particularly in light of the recent decision by the Trump administration to increase tariffs on imports from India to as high as 50% on Wednesday. Nonetheless, Russian oil exports to India are projected to increase in September, as reported by traders, in defiance of U.S. pressure. Saudi Arabia, recognized as the largest oil exporter globally, is considering a reduction in October crude oil prices for Asian purchasers, influenced by a surplus in supply and a decline in demand, according to refining sources. Following a disruption attributed to a Ukrainian attack in Russia last week, the flow of Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline has resumed, as confirmed by Hungarian oil company MOL and Slovakia’s economy minister on Thursday.