Oil prices experienced an uptick on Friday, driven by investor scepticism regarding the likelihood of a significant advancement in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. The two parties remain entrenched in their positions concerning Tehran’s uranium reserves and regulatory measures in the Strait of Hormuz. The market, however, continued to trend towards a weekly loss. A senior Iranian source informed that no agreement has been finalised with the U.S., although the differences have diminished. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked that there have been “some good signs” in the discussions, but any toll system in the strait would be deemed unacceptable.

Brent crude futures increased by $2.38, representing a 2.3% rise, reaching $104.96 per barrel by 0034. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures saw an uptick of $1.73, or 1.8%, settling at $98.08. Both benchmarks experienced a decline of approximately 2% on Thursday, marking their lowest closing levels in nearly two weeks. With the outlook for peace talks still uncertain, oil prices are rising on expectations that Middle East instability and supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz will persist,” stated Satoru Yoshida.

WTI is expected to stay within a $90-$110 range next week, consistent with its performance since late March,” he added. Six weeks since a fragile ceasefire took effect, efforts to end the war have demonstrated minimal progress, while heightened oil prices have intensified concerns regarding inflation and the global economy. Around 20% of global energy supplies transited the Strait before the war, which has removed 14 million barrels per day of oil – or 14% of global supply – from the market, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.

Full oil flows through the Strait are unlikely to resume before the first or second quarter of 2027, even in the event of an immediate resolution to the conflict, according to the head of the UAE’s state oil firm ADNOC. Seven prominent OPEC+ oil-producing nations are expected to reach a consensus on a slight increase in July output during their meeting on June 7, according to four sources. However, the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to disrupt deliveries for several of these countries.