Oil prices experienced a modest increase on Thursday, recovering from two consecutive days of decline, as a more significant-than-anticipated reduction in U.S. crude inventories offered a catalyst for investors to purchase futures while keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela. Brent crude futures increased by 38 cents, representing a 0.6% rise, reaching $60.34 per barrel as of 0104. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $56.36 per barrel, up by 37 cents, or 0.7%.

Both benchmarks declined by over 1% for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, as market participants anticipate a significant global supply this year. Analysts at Morgan Stanley project a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026. The declines prompted certain traders to seize the opportunity to purchase futures on Thursday, according to Mitsuru Muraishi.Recent pullback buying has resulted in a modest increase in prices; however, ongoing concerns regarding oversupply are limiting upward momentum. While markets are observing developments in Venezuela, the prevailing downward trend is expected to persist for the time being,” he stated, predicting that WTI will likely decline below $54.

U.S. crude stocks decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels in the week ending January 2, according to the Energy Information Administration, contrasting with analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll that anticipated a 447,000-barrel increase. Top U.S. officials stated on Wednesday that it is essential for the United States to exert control over Venezuela’s oil sales and revenue on a long-term basis in order to stabilize the nation’s economy, rehabilitate its oil sector, and align its actions with American interests. Chevron, an oil producer, is engaged in discussions with the U.S. government to broaden a crucial license for operations in Venezuela. This expansion aims to facilitate an increase in crude exports to its refineries and enable sales to additional buyers, according to four sources familiar with the negotiations as of Wednesday. The U.S. seized two oil tankers linked to Venezuela in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday, one of which was sailing under Russia’s flag. This action is part of President Donald Trump’s assertive strategy to influence oil distribution in the Americas and pressure Venezuela’s socialist government to align with U.S. interests.

On Tuesday, Washington revealed an agreement with Caracas to secure access to as much as $2 billion in Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela is poised to “turn over” between 30 million and 50 million barrels of “sanctioned oil” to the U.S., as noted by Trump in a social media post on Tuesday. Sources indicated that the agreement may necessitate the redirection of shipments originally destined for China. Chinese independent refiners, which account for a significant portion of the nation’s Venezuelan imports, may pivot to Iranian oil to compensate for any deficits.