Oil prices increased by over 1% during Asian trading on Monday, bolstered by OPEC+’s commitment to maintain output levels in the first quarter, alongside heightened supply concerns arising from geopolitical tensions. As of 20:52, Brent Oil Futures expiring in February increased by 1.2% to $63.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures similarly rose by 1.2% to $59.27 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Sunday reaffirmed its strategy to halt production increases through the first quarter of the upcoming year, sustaining voluntary reductions of approximately 3.24 million barrels per day.

The group indicated a prudent stance as it navigates fluctuating demand patterns and what it perceives as a possible oversupply in 2026. The cartel has reached an agreement on a framework to assess the maximum production capacities of its members from January to September 2026, thereby establishing the foundation for determining baseline quotas for the year 2027. Analysts noted, “This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines.” Market participants assessed new supply risks associated with the political statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump concerning Venezuela, as Trump indicated he is contemplating the possibility of closing the airspace over the nation.

“This escalation between the US and Venezuela involves the US conducting strikes on vessels it alleges are transporting drugs, while simultaneously enhancing its military presence in the vicinity,” analysts stated. Venezuela’s exports are approximately 800,000 barrels per day, with the majority of the crude oil destined for China. Clearly, any additional escalation jeopardizes this supply. Crude received further backing from a sequence of assaults over the weekend targeting Russian energy infrastructure, leading to disruptions in export operations.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a significant channel for the transportation of Kazakh and Russian crude oil via the Black Sea, announced the suspension of loadings following a naval drone strike that inflicted considerable damage on a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal. “Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged approximately 1.48 million barrels per day thus far this year, reflecting an increase of about 200,000 barrels per day compared to the previous year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan has bolstered exports,” noted analysts.