U.S. natural gas futures have experienced an increase for the second consecutive session, driven by weather forecasts indicating a return of colder temperatures for the remainder of March. “Although the fundamentals continue to exhibit a downward bias, there appears to be significant support in the range of $3.95/mmBtu to $4.00/mmBtu,” notes Gelber & Associates. The Nymex front month, having navigated multiple intraday declines beneath the $4 threshold in recent trading sessions, concludes with a 4.8% increase, settling at $4.247/mmBtu. The upcoming storage report is poised to capture market attention, with projections indicating a below-average draw of 12 Bcf, as per a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal among analysts. This would lead to a reduction in the deficit when assessed over a five-year average, yet it would result in an increase compared to the level from the previous year.

European natural-gas prices experienced a notable increase of up to 7%, reflecting diminishing expectations for the prompt resumption of Russian gas supplies following the Kremlin’s dismissal of proposals for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract has increased by 6.7%, now standing at 43.50 euros per megawatt hour. “The prevailing sentiment regarding a constrained supply market this summer—when gas demand is expected to surge to fulfill storage objectives—has not entirely dissipated, although it has been eclipsed by ongoing diplomatic discussions between Russia and the U.S.,” states Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank. “It is increasingly evident that the revival of flows is unlikely and that the fundamental challenge of fulfilling the storage mandate remains dominant.” The current state of EU storage stands at 34.5% capacity, while the TTF summer contract is trading at a premium of 2 euros per megawatt hour over the winter contract, which diminishes the motivation to engage in gas storage activities.

U.S. natural gas futures are on the rise, driven by expectations of cooler weather that is likely to boost demand as the weekend approaches, alongside an uptick in feedgas flows to LNG export facilities. Forecaster NatGasWeather.com notes that the overnight weather data exhibited a mixed pattern, revealing only minor trends, yet it appears less bearish than previously observed. “The emphasis is once more on the determination of whether prices in April 2025 will settle above or below the $4 threshold.” The April contract, having experienced intraday declines beneath that threshold in recent trading sessions, has risen by 2.7% to reach $4.163/mmBtu.

In early trading, European natural-gas prices experienced an uptick following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to temporarily halt assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, although he refrained from supporting a comprehensive cease-fire. The conversation on Tuesday between President Trump and President Putin has sparked wider inquiries regarding the trajectory towards peace, with market analysts suggesting that the journey may still be protracted. In the early hours, Russian forces targeted the energy infrastructure in Slovyansk, located in eastern Ukraine. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract has increased by 3.3%, reaching 42.09 euros per megawatt hour; however, it remains over 12% lower compared to the previous month. “Recent days have seen gas prices facing downward pressure, as analysts at ANZ Research indicate speculation surrounding the potential resumption of pipeline flows from Russia.” Gas storage levels within the European Union are experiencing a significant decline, currently standing at merely 34.5% capacity.