Oil futures have experienced an upward trajectory for four consecutive sessions, buoyed by the United States’ warning of potential import tariffs on nations purchasing oil from Venezuela. “It is clear that the market perceives this as somewhat supportive,” states John Kilduff of Again Capital. However, he observes President Trump’s tendency to engage in discussions with nations facing tariff threats to negotiate agreements. “It appears that if any of these actions begin to influence and elevate oil prices, he is likely to retreat from his current stance.” He is concerned about the potential negative impact on the U.S. economy that such actions would entail. The market has incorporated a significant portion of the recent negative developments, including discussions regarding the cessation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and OPEC+ intentions to resume production, according to Kilduff. “The $66 level represents a significant support threshold at present, while surpassing the $70 mark poses a considerable challenge.” WTI concluded the trading session with an increase of 1.2%, reaching a price of $69.11 per barrel. Brent crude experiences an increase of 1.2%, reaching a price of $73.00 per barrel.

The front-month gold contract experienced a decline, closing down 0.2% at $3,013.10 per troy ounce. Gold continues to hover close to its historical peak established last week; however, it experienced a decline today due to the typical volatility associated with the end of the month and quarter, alongside recent tariff developments. President Trump announced via a post on Truth Social that a 25% tariff will be imposed on any country acquiring oil and gas from Venezuela. The increased volatility is noteworthy; however, Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA indicated in a recent note that the inflows into gold, regarded as a safe haven asset, have reached their limit. The United States’ potential imposition of import tariffs on nations purchasing Venezuelan crude is exerting upward pressure on oil futures, though the effect on overall supply is expected to be minimal. “I do not anticipate that those barrels will disappear from the global supply; however, it is evident that their costs will increase compared to previous levels, likely necessitating a realignment of global oil distribution,” states Robert Yawger of Mizuho. Although many purchasers have distanced themselves from Iranian oil, he suggests that they may not be inclined to adopt a similar stance regarding Venezuelan supplies. The decision may adversely affect U.S. refiners, who are already contending with tariffs imposed on crude imports from Canada and Mexico, according to Yawger. In 2024, the United States imported approximately 228,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, as reported by the EIA. In February, OPEC assessed Venezuela’s oil production at 918,000 barrels per day, drawing on data from secondary sources.

Crude futures have experienced an uptick following President Trump’s announcement regarding the imposition of secondary tariffs at a rate of 25% on imports from nations that procure oil and gas from Venezuela. Earlier this month, the administration set a deadline of April 3 for Chevron to conclude its operations in the South American nation. However, reports from last week indicated that the administration is contemplating an extension of Chevron’s license while also evaluating the potential implementation of tariffs on purchasers of Venezuelan oil. Oil futures continue to oscillate within a defined range, as market participants assess largely similar factors to those observed in the previous week: the conclusion of the ceasefire in Gaza, U.S. military actions targeting Houthi rebels, the imposition of stricter sanctions on Iranian oil, and ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “While present price pressures stem from geopolitical risks, the advent of peace agreements or de-escalation in these areas could shift sentiment and exert bearish pressure by diminishing the necessity for risk hedging in oil,” notes Forex.com market analyst Razan Hilal.

Investors in Wood Group maintain optimism regarding the potential acquisition of the energy-services provider at a premium, as noted by AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. Monday’s announcement regarding the extension granted to Dubai-based Sidara Group for conducting due diligence resulted in a positive movement in the stock. However, Mould notes that there remains no assurance that a definitive agreement will be achieved. Sidara faces a deadline of April 17 to either submit a definitive offer or withdraw from negotiations; however, this timeline may be subject to extension under specific circumstances. Wood shares are currently trading at 38.90 pence, reflecting a 1.3% increase, although they had surged over 8% during the initial trading session. The company’s shares have experienced a decline of 73.75% over the preceding year.

Elliott Management evidently perceives that augmenting buybacks presents a straightforward mechanism for RWE to enhance its share price, as noted by investment director at AJ Bell, Russ Mould. The activist investor expressed disappointment on Monday concerning the German energy company’s insufficient clarity about its commitment to improving shareholder returns. Elliott endorses RWE’s strategic pivot towards reducing investments in green technologies, as noted by Mould. Elliott is advocating for oil giant BP to enhance shareholder returns while placing greater emphasis on hydrocarbon production. Mould indicates that Elliott’s recent trades suggest a support for a reversal in the energy transition. RWE shares are currently trading at 32.95 euros, reflecting a 2.7% increase, and have appreciated nearly 16% over the last three months.

Oil prices experience a modest increase in the initial stages of Asian trading. According to Antonio Di Giacomo, a financial markets analyst for LATAM at XS, geopolitical tensions, sanction policies, and OPEC+ strategies are expected to remain significant factors influencing the evolution of the oil market. Market participants and economic analysts will pay close attention to emerging factors that could impact global crude supply and demand dynamics, potentially leading to increased price volatility in the forthcoming weeks, the analyst notes.